Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.
Identifieur interne : 000286 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000285; suivant : 000287Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.
Auteurs : Marcos Amaku [Brésil] ; Dimas Tadeu Covas [Brésil] ; Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho [Brésil] ; Raymundo Soares Azevedo Neto [Brésil] ; Claudio Struchiner [Brésil] ; Annelies Wilder-Smith [Allemagne, Suède, Royaume-Uni] ; Eduardo Massad [Brésil]Source :
- Infectious Disease Modelling [ 2468-0427 ] ; 2021.
Abstract
Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of society. In this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-and-quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of São Paulo, Brasil. The State of São Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy, reaching at most 59% in late March and started to relax the measures in late June, dropping to 41% in 08 August. Therefore, São Paulo relies heavily on a massive testing strategy in the attempt to control the epidemic. Two alternative strategies combined with economic evaluations were simulated. One strategy included indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State, reaching more than 40 million people at a maximum cost of 2.25 billion USD, that would reduce the total number of cases by the end of 2020 by 90%. The second strategy investigated testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts - this strategy reached a maximum cost of 150 million USD but also reduced the number of cases by 90%. The conclusion is that if the State of São Paulo had decided to adopt the simulated strategy on April the 1st, it would have been possible to reduce the total number of cases by 90% at a cost of 2.25 billion US dollars for the indiscriminate strategy but at a much smaller cost of 125 million US dollars for the selective testing of symptomatic cases and their contacts.
DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.004
PubMed: 33235942
PubMed Central: PMC7677040
Affiliations:
- Allemagne, Brésil, Royaume-Uni, Suède
- État de Rio de Janeiro, État de São Paulo
- Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo
- Université de São Paulo
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last="Amaku">Marcos Amaku</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo, Brazil.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">São Paulo</settlement><region type="state">État de São Paulo</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">São Paulo</settlement><region type="state">État de São Paulo</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de São Paulo</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Covas, Dimas Tadeu" sort="Covas, Dimas 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Paulo</settlement><region type="state">État de São Paulo</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Azevedo Neto, Raymundo Soares" sort="Azevedo Neto, Raymundo Soares" uniqKey="Azevedo Neto R" first="Raymundo Soares" last="Azevedo Neto">Raymundo Soares Azevedo Neto</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo, Brazil.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">São Paulo</settlement><region type="state">État de São Paulo</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Struchiner, Claudio" sort="Struchiner, Claudio" uniqKey="Struchiner C" first="Claudio" last="Struchiner">Claudio Struchiner</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>School of Applied Mathematics, Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, 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Sao Paulo, Brazil.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">São Paulo</settlement><region type="state">État de São Paulo</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>School of Applied Mathematics, Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Applied Mathematics, Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Rio de Janeiro</settlement><region type="state">État de Rio de Janeiro</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Infectious Disease Modelling</title><idno type="eISSN">2468-0427</idno><imprint><date when="2021" type="published">2021</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of society. In this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-and-quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of São Paulo, Brasil. The State of São Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy, reaching at most 59% in late March and started to relax the measures in late June, dropping to 41% in 08 August. Therefore, São Paulo relies heavily on a massive testing strategy in the attempt to control the epidemic. Two alternative strategies combined with economic evaluations were simulated. One strategy included indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State, reaching more than 40 million people at a maximum cost of 2.25 billion USD, that would reduce the total number of cases by the end of 2020 by 90%. The second strategy investigated testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts - this strategy reached a maximum cost of 150 million USD but also reduced the number of cases by 90%. The conclusion is that if the State of São Paulo had decided to adopt the simulated strategy on April the 1st, it would have been possible to reduce the total number of cases by 90% at a cost of 2.25 billion US dollars for the indiscriminate strategy but at a much smaller cost of 125 million US dollars for the selective testing of symptomatic cases and their contacts.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">33235942</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2021</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>10</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2468-0427</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>6</Volume><PubDate><Year>2021</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Infectious Disease Modelling</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Infect Dis Model</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>46-55</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.004</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of society. In this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-and-quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of São Paulo, Brasil. The State of São Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy, reaching at most 59% in late March and started to relax the measures in late June, dropping to 41% in 08 August. Therefore, São Paulo relies heavily on a massive testing strategy in the attempt to control the epidemic. Two alternative strategies combined with economic evaluations were simulated. One strategy included indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State, reaching more than 40 million people at a maximum cost of 2.25 billion USD, that would reduce the total number of cases by the end of 2020 by 90%. The second strategy investigated testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts - this strategy reached a maximum cost of 150 million USD but also reduced the number of cases by 90%. The conclusion is that if the State of São Paulo had decided to adopt the simulated strategy on April the 1st, it would have been possible to reduce the total number of cases by 90% at a cost of 2.25 billion US dollars for the indiscriminate strategy but at a much smaller cost of 125 million US dollars for the selective testing of symptomatic cases and their contacts.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Amaku</LastName><ForeName>Marcos</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo, Brazil.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Covas</LastName><ForeName>Dimas Tadeu</ForeName><Initials>DT</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Instituto Butantan, Sao Paulo, Brazil.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bezerra Coutinho</LastName><ForeName>Francisco Antonio</ForeName><Initials>FA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo, Brazil.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Azevedo Neto</LastName><ForeName>Raymundo Soares</ForeName><Initials>RS</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo, Brazil.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Struchiner</LastName><ForeName>Claudio</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Applied Mathematics, Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wilder-Smith</LastName><ForeName>Annelies</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department Public Health and Clinical, Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Germany.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, SE-901 85, Umeå, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical, Medicine, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Massad</LastName><ForeName>Eduardo</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo, Brazil.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Applied Mathematics, Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>20</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>China</Country><MedlineTA>Infect Dis Model</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101692406</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2468-0427</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Cost-analysis</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Modelling</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">SARS-CoV-2</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Testing</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>The authors declare no conflict of interests.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>18</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>11</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>14</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>26</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>26</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>5</Hour><Minute>47</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">33235942</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.004</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S2468-0427(20)30074-9</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7677040</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><pmc-dir>pmcsd</pmc-dir>
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